Tuesday, November 28, 2006

Feeling a draft?

There’s been lots of talk in the press lately about resurrecting the draft. I have some friends who think it’s a good thing, and some who don’t. Some say a universal service plan is a good idea, some say only for the armed forces, and others say nothing at all. Here are my thoughts on the debate (for what it is worth).

I am for a draft if, and only if, we need a large ground force that needs to be able to sustain high rates of casualties over a long period of time. A draft is used when fodder is needed. In WWII we had a draft (more like conscription) because we needed a huge ground army (and other services too) that could withstand horrific casualty rates and still fight and win. Off of the top of my head I think that the there were over one million casualties suffered by the US military during the war (about 400,000 KIA), with most occurring in the Army in Europe between June 6, 1944 and May 9, 1945. In the Air Corps alone 25,000 flyers were killed over the skies of Europe during the war. Therefore, in order to sustain the fight we drafted millions of men.

Today, our battle is different. We’re not trying to fight a huge land war. We also don’t need a million-man air force, and we’re not manning a 2,000 ship navy. I think everyone agrees that we do need to expand the size of the active duty army and marine corps, maybe by 20%. That would put the Army at about 610,000, and the marine Corps at about 210,000. This can be done with a volunteer force, and it’s been done before.

In comparison to 16 years ago, the active duty Army was 780,000 as we stood ready to fight the Soviets and the North Koreans at the same time. Of that huge Army, with another 600,000 in the National Guard and Army Reserve, very few were draftees from the Vietnam War, a time when the active duty Army was something like 1.4 million. As a young platoon leader and company commander, I can recall only one or two NCOs I knew who were drafted. Most had enlisted, most had fought in Viet Nam, and they stayed in the Army after the war. They were volunteers and that’s what we still need today.

Expanding the force does not require a draft. Why take people who don’t want to be there and force them to soldier? Again, if we need a huge ground army to fight Iran or China, then yes, we need the draft. But being a soldier is hard. The vast majority of our young people today go through a real culture shock when they enlist. I know, I lived in that environment while back on active duty a few years ago.

Additionally, only about 30% of Americans aged 18-25 are physically, mentally, educationally, and morally (meaning no felonies) qualified to enlist, and not all of those who do make it through their initial entry training. Remember, not just anyone can join the military. We say “volunteer”. Fat Albert can volunteer, but he’s not going to meet the physical standards. Our service members are recruited, selected, and vetted for service. Today’s young military professionals are fit and smart.

Let’s go back to the draft issue and peel back the onion a little. I have some questions:
- How many soldiers are we going to draft?
- What branches of the service are they going into?
- If the force is going to grow, where are the new officers and sergeants going to come from to lead these new soldiers?
- What bases are they going to train at?
- Where are we going to base them since we are still closing down bases as a part of the Base Realignment and Closing process in Congress?
- Are married draftees going to be allowed to bring their families?
- How much is it going to cost for family support?
- Will new bases be built?
- Will local communities be able to absorb the increase of base population (ie schools, water, sewer, etc)?
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I’ve peeled back about one layer of the onion so far. Now let’s take a look at the “public service” side of a draft (for the other 70% of America’s youth who can’t serve in the military):
- What field will they go into?
- How will they be trained and who will pay for it?
- Where will they live?
- What vetting method will be used to ensure it’s a “good fit”?
- Will the receive health care and a salary?
- What if they’re married, will there be married housing available for them?
- How will their wages be set?
- Will they be unionized?

Let’s say the Johnny comes from a low performing high school in California, isn’t a high school grad, and had some brushes with the law. Because he’s 80 pounds over weight and has carpel tunnel syndrome from playing video games, he’s not going into the service. What to do with Johnny in the draft? Have him work in a rest home with Alzheimer patients? Maybe work in a homeless shelter? Now let’s say he’s married, and there are no “placements” near his Yreka home. Now what?

My point is that it’s real easy to say “let’s have a draft” or “let’s have national service”. In reality, it is very difficult, and to use it as a political tool is a mistake.

What do you think?

2 comments:

Chris Bailey said...

John: I just don't believe that the recommendation for a draft to be one that the Congress will take seriously. First, I don't believe that the political battlefield has been prepared. I don't believe that the American people understand our political problems in the Middle East with Iran, Syria and fundamentalism. We're not in a position to negotiate with Iran. Iran has its foot on the regional accelerator and wants things we won't give: U.S. out of the Middle East entirely, Israel gone, nuclear power, and a Shia-dominated Iraq. The "Shia Cresent" is a serious long-term consideration - an ideologically motivated people, martyr complex and willing to accept sacrifices to right social injustices - stretching from Lebanon through Iraq to Iran. Second, I don't believe that anyone has established the manpower requirement for a national draft. No one is about to trust the President by establishing a draft for homeland defense - people will not believe that he won't use the forces overseas. In sum, our real national need is to define our vital and lesser important interests in the Middle East, deciding who want to deal with and what we will accept as a long-term outcome. But it's too early for a real discussion on manpower requirements. Chris

JB said...

Chris,

Thank you for your continued commentary and support of my blog. As always, your insights are throught provoking and on target.